Modelling peak electricity demand to 2050: Final report and model manual

Sapere was commissioned by Electricity Networks Aotearoa (ENA) to model peak electricity demand up to 2050. The report, written by David Reeve, Michael Young and Toby Stevenson, modelled electricity demand across network supply points (NSPs) to 2050 under three scenarios:

1. Naïve – no management of demand beyond current practice
2. Energy Optimised – Energy traders shift discretionary load to minimise wholesale market costs or optimise revenue.
3. Network Optimised – Electricity distribution businesses manage discretionary load to reduce peak impacts on network capacity.

Using the Climate Change Commission’s detailed sector-based modelling and Electricity Authority data, we assessed how national forecasts translate to local NSPs.

A key finding is that effective management of EV charging will be essential to shifting demand from peak to off-peak times. Both energy traders and EDBs benefit from reducing peak demand, but renewable variability, especially wind, can shift peak pricing unexpectedly.

Overall, the modelling highlights how different approaches to load control impact network demand, providing valuable insights for managing future electricity distribution challenges.

The ENA have highlighted the report’s findings on their website:

Peak demand in 2050 and avoiding an energy gridlock