Penington Institute engaged Sapere to model the Victorian economic and government revenue impact of being first to introduce legal adult-use cannabis in Australia.
To do so, Sapere looked at the regulation of cannabis in Canada and the United States and tobacco and alcohol in Victoria and developed a potential regulatory scheme of production and consumption. The regulated market assumed for modelling reflects a conservative base case where legal requirements are a material barrier to entry for industry participants compared to US markets, for example. This impacts the displacement of demand to the legal market assumed to enable estimates of economic impact using a 115-sector input-output model of the Victorian economy. We projected the legal adult-use Victorian cannabis industry to grow, displacing most (but not all) of the illicit supply.
Report published by Penington can be downloaded in link below.
The team involved were David Graham, Melissa Skilbeck, William Li and Jeremy Thorpe.
Read more in the Media.